Lowell's Locks: Week Three

That’s more like it! A huge 5-1 week for Lowell’s Locks has me feeling confident coming into this week. The only loss last week was Clemson failing to cover the spread against Troy, but Illinois, Oregon, Iowa, Oklahoma, and South Carolina State all covered the number in their games. Oregon especially, demolishing Oklahoma State 69-3 to cover the 27.5 easily

As we head into this week, the Locks stand at 8-4, and we’re looking for more. Let’s go.

Saturday, September 13th: 

Wisconsin at #19 Alabama (-20.5):

Wisconsin has been average to start the season, while Alabama is coming off a 73-0 win over ULM, hence the massive spread here. Despite that number, the O/U is only listed at 46.5, implying a final score of 33.5-13. I think the Badgers manage to put a little more than 13 on the board. It still won’t be pretty, but Wisconsin covers the number. And only God can save Kalen DeBoer if Alabama somehow loses this one.

Lowell’s Lock: Wisconsin covers +20.5

#6 Georgia (-3.5) at #15 Tennessee:

The Bulldogs head into Knoxville for what should be an electric matchup. While this isn’t the same dominant Georgia team from their 2021–23 run, they’re still stacked on defense and steadily improving on offense behind quarterback Gunner Stockton. Expect Kirby Smart to lean on a punishing ground game and his trademark suffocating front seven to control the tempo.

As for Tennessee, we don’t really know what they are yet. The Vols handled business against Syracuse and East Tennessee State, but quarterback Joey Aguilar hasn’t faced anything close to Georgia’s defense. That changes on Saturday, and I don’t think he will pass the test.

Lowell’s Lock: Georgia covers -3.5

#18 South Florida at #5 Miami (-17.5):

USF has turned heads with early wins over Boise State and Florida, and they’ve earned their way into the rankings. The Bulls have been opportunistic and aggressive, and quarterback Byrum Brown is playing with confidence. But this trip to Miami is a different challenge altogether.

The Hurricanes are one of the most balanced teams in the country right now. Their defense has been dominant through two games, giving up just over 250 yards per outing, and they’ve looked sharp on offense with strong protection up front. On paper, Miami has the advantage in just about every phase.

Still, the number matters. At -17.5, the spread sits just above a key margin. It’s not hard to imagine Miami taking control early, then easing off late and allowing a backdoor cover. USF is good enough to make one or two plays in the second half that keep things respectable. Miami should win comfortably, but I’m not laying more than 17.

Lowell’s Lock: South Florida covers +17.5

Florida at #3 LSU (-6.5):

Florida is coming off a disappointing loss to USF, and now they walk into Tiger Stadium to face one of the most physical defenses and loudest crowds in the country. Florida has talent, and DJ Lagway can make things happen with his arm, but the offense hasn’t found a rhythm. The Gators have struggled in the red zone and haven’t shown the kind of consistency it takes to beat a top-five team on the road.

LSU’s offense isn’t perfect either, but they’ll move the ball just enough and lean on their defense to squeeze this game in their favor. With the line at 6.5, I think LSU does enough to cover at home.

Lowell’s Lock: LSU covers -6.5

Vanderbilt at #11 South Carolina (-2.5):

The fact that this number sits at just 2.5 should tell you something. Vanderbilt demolished Virginia Tech last weekend, making the Gamecocks’ win over the Hokies look a little less impressive. The Gamecocks are the stronger team in the trenches, and that should eventually take over, but not without some scares. Also, don’t kick to Vicari Swain, who returned two punts for touchdowns last weekend.

Lowell’s Locks: South Carolina covers -2.5

#12 Clemson (-2.5) at Georgia Tech:

Georgia Tech has looked sharp through two weeks. The offense has been explosive, featuring a balanced attack and a real sense of confidence. With Haynes King likely back under center, the Yellow Jackets become even more dangerous. They lead the ACC in red zone efficiency and have been capitalizing on short fields and big plays.

Clemson, on the other hand, still feels like a work in progress. The Tigers narrowly escaped Troy last week and are still searching for their offensive rhythm. Cade Klubnik has shown flashes but hasn’t consistently taken over games. The Clemson defense is still physical up front, but this will be one of their toughest tests to date.

That said, this is where coaching and experience show up. Clemson has the edge at the line of scrimmage and should be able to limit Georgia Tech’s run game. It might not be pretty, but it feels like a game where the Tigers pull away late and cover a short number.

Score Prediction: 27-24 Clemson

Lowell’s Lock: Clemson covers -2.5