Lowell's Locks: Week Seven

Just like that, the college football regular season is officially over the halfway mark. There is still a lot of uncertainty, but what is certain is that Lowell’s Locks are officially BACK!!

A second straight 4-2 week pushes the Locks to 20-16 in the win column and a 55.6% rate, which means if you’re riding with me, you’re in the green.

There are some massive games on hand this week that could clear up that uncertainty. Let’s get into it.

Saturday, October 11th

#1 Ohio State (-14.5) at #17 Illinois):

Ohio State has been suffocating on defense and clean on offense, which travels. Julian Sayin is operating at an efficient clip, and the Buckeyes have matchup problems all over the field with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate winning outside. Illinois has leveled up behind Luke Altmyer’s mistake-free start and a balanced run game, but sustaining drives against this speed is a different ask. If Ohio State wins first down and keeps Altmyer in long fields, the middle quarters tilt scarlet. 

Key availability that actually moves the needle: Illinois lists starting corner Xavier Scott out and center Josh Kreutz questionable. That combination tightens Illinois’ margins on both edges and in protection, exactly where Ohio State stresses you. Buckeyes finish more drives and separate late. 

Lowell’s Lock: Ohio State covers -14.5

#8 Alabama at #14 Missouri:

Alabama’s path is pretty clean if they win first down. Ty Simpson has been efficient enough to keep the script on schedule, and Missouri’s defense has leaned on havoc at home more than sustained stops. If the Tide avoid the sack/run-stuff funk that shows up on the road sometimes, they can trade early, flip a short field, and let their depth carry the middle quarters. Ryan Williams is expected to go, which keeps the explosive ceiling intact. 

Missouri is 5–0 and can run it in waves, but longer fields against this speed are a different ask, and the Tigers have lived at home so far. Keep an eye on the OL: Cayden Green has been in the “questionable” bucket this week, and that matters if Bama’s pass rush gets them off-schedule. If Alabama handles noise and limits chunk runs, they control the last two possessions. 

Lowell’s Lock: Alabama covers -2.5

#7 Indiana at #3 Oregon (-7.5)

Oregon at Autzen is a handful, but this number gives Indiana a real path. The Ducks can win yardage and still leave the back door cracked if they are forced to stack long drives. If the Hoosiers keep a lid on the shot plays and make Oregon earn it in 10 to 12 snaps, the flags, sacks, and field goals start to matter. Indiana’s quick game and quarterback legs can buy enough first downs to avoid the pass-rush snowball, and the crowd effect fades if they stay out of third and long.

The hook is the key. Oregon can be up 14, shift into shell, and still invite a late score that lands this in the 27 to 20 or 31 to 24 pocket. Special teams and red zone execution tilt it. Trade threes for sevens, steal one short field, and you are live all four quarters. Unless surprise inactives hit top skill guys on either side, this profiles as a one-possession finish. Don’t be surprised if I’m wrong about the winner, either; Indiana can win this outright.

Lowell’s Lock: Indiana covers +7.5

#6 Oklahoma vs. Texas (-1.5), Red River Rivalry (Cotton Bowl, Dallas):

Texas can keep this on script if they win early downs. Arch Manning in rhythm, run game steady, then shots to Ryan Wingo and DeAndre Moore Jr. when leverage shows, with Jaime Ffrench Jr. in the mix. Defensively, Texas is built to squeeze with four, tackle in space, and force third-and-long situations. If they finish drives and avoid the empty possessions that flip momentum in this stadium, field position tilts burnt orange after halftime. 

Oklahoma’s answer is playmaking and pace. With John Mateer tracking toward playable, QB run and second-reaction throws are back on the table. That unlocks Gavin Sawchuk downhill and isolates Nic Anderson outside. The Sooners’ defense has lived on disruption and timely red-zone stands; if they steal one short field and limit negative plays, this stays in one-score territory into the final series. I lean OU to win the explosives battle by a hair and make the last drive count.

Lowell’s Lock: Oklahoma covers +1.5

South Carolina at #11 LSU (-9.5):

Death Valley at night tilts the script toward LSU. If Garrett Nussmeier stays on schedule and gets a healthy Caden Durham back to stabilize early downs, the Tigers can press South Carolina’s thin offensive rhythm by owning field position. Durham missed Ole Miss but is now tracking to play, which matters for LSU’s red-zone math. 

South Carolina’s path is LaNorris Sellers creating explosives and Vicari Swain flipping a short field on special teams. Sellers has been cleared since the Vandy scare, but the Gamecocks arrive shorthanded up front: Markee Anderson (out), plus starting OL Cason Henry and Nolan Hay ruled out late in the week. That’s a rough ask against this front in this building. LSU still has some question marks (WR Aaron Anderson questionable; OL Paul Mubenga doubtful), but the trench edge and returning RB tilt the middle quarters purple and gold.

Lowell’s Lock: LSU covers -9.5

Clemson (-13.5) at North Carolina

Clemson found some rhythm last week, and that travels. The defense tightened up against UNC, and Cade Klubnik played his best game of the year with cleaner timing and better shot selection. If the Tigers win first down and keep drives on schedule, they can lean on field position and make BC chase. The ACC’s Friday report lists Clemson’s availability unchanged, and the matchup itself sets up for the Tigers to squeeze the middle quarters again. 

Boston College has playmakers, but the margin is currently thin. The Eagles have been hit by absences on defense and are coming off a rough trip to Pitt, where the back end and linebackers struggled to hold up. If Dylan Lonergan and Turbo Richard don’t get early explosives or a short field, BC is forced into long drives against a faster group. Clemson finishes more possessions with points and pulls away in the third. 

Score Prediction: 31-13 Clemson

Lowell’s Lock: Clemson covers -13.5