Keys to Victory: Clemson at Louisville

The Match-Up:

Clemson (4-5, 3-4 ACC) vs. Louisville (7-2, 4-2 ACC)

Clemson will conclude conference play this week when the Tigers hit the road to face the Louisville Cardinals on Friday, Nov. 14. Kickoff at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

After a 1-3 start to the season in August and September, Clemson is 3-2 in October and November, thanks in part to a resurgent offense. Entering its first game of October, Clemson ranked 116th in the nation in scoring offense at 19.8 points per game. Clemson has averaged 34.4 points per game in its five games since, tied for the 19th-best mark in the nation since Oct. 1. Clemson also ranks 19th in the nation in that span in yards per game (444.6)

• Friday, Nov. 15, 7:30 p.m.
• TV: ESPN (Anish Shroff, Andre Ware, Paul Carcaterra)
• Radio: Clemson Athletic Network (Don Munson, Tim Bourret, Reggie Merriweather)
• Venue: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium (Louisville, K.Y.)

Storylines:

Today is the 22nd anniversary of one of the more shocking results in the history of the Clemson-Florida State series, a 26-10 Clemson win against No. 3 FSU on Nov. 8, 2003.

Unranked 5-4 Clemson was coming off a 45-17 loss at Wake Forest, and 8-1 Florida State had just won 37-0 at Notre Dame. To this day, Dabo Swinney, who was in his first year as Clemson’s wide receivers coach at the time, credits the win with helping save his tenure at Clemson, as the victory was the first of Tigers' four straight wins to end the season and led to a contract extension for Head Coach Tommy Bowden.

This year's game will be Florida State's 19th all-time visit to Clemson. The teams have evenly split their 18 previous meetings in Death Valley, 9-9, with almost identical point totals of 470-468. Of Clemson's 65 all-time Memorial Stadium foes, a Tiger win Saturday would make Florida State the 50th against which the Tigers have a winning record in the legendary venue.

Fun Fact:

Clemson is attempting to push its all-time record against Louisville to 9-1. With the contest tonight, Louisville becomes the 27th different program against which Clemson has played 10 or more games all-time.

The Tigers are attempting to make Louisville the third program against which it has earned at least nine wins in the first 10 games of a series (10-0 in first 10 games vs. Virginia, 9-1 in first 10 games vs. The Citadel).

Series History:

• OVERALL: Clemson leads series, 8-1
• LAST MEETING: Nov. 2, 2024 (33-21, L)
• STREAK: Louisville, Won 1

Clemson is attempting to win its first five road games in a series with an opponent for the fourth time in school history. Clemson went 5-0 in its first five road games against Virginia, Furman, and The Citadel.

Swanny’s Rant & Reality Check:

“Look, Louisville might be the third-best team Clemson has faced this year — but Clemson should be the best team in every matchup on this schedule. That’s the crux of it. Clemson should be the best team every time they take the field… and they haven’t been. They’ve been bad. Hard to watch at times.

At some point, you’ve got to take a page out of Dabo Swinney’s book when Tyler from Spartanburg called him up. ‘Hey Tyler, I’ve listened to enough of you,’ Swinney noted. Well, I’ve listened to enough of Clemson. I’ve listened to enough of what we’ve seen on the field. I’ve heard it. I’ve lived it. It’s time for the Tigers to deliver.

Not the Florida State win. Not going to North Carolina or Boston College. None of that means a hill of beans right now. This is the game — the one where you can finally say all the bad from earlier in the year doesn’t define who you are. This is the game where you plant a flag and decide the season isn’t a lost cause. And in a couple of weeks against South Carolina? Same story. Another chance to show who you really are.

Because let’s be honest: Clemson hasn’t beaten anybody worth a crap this season. Not Troy, not North Carolina, not Boston College, and certainly not whatever train wreck Florida State is rolling out of Tallahassee right now.”

Keys to Victory:

1. Pressure Miller Moss into Mistakes

Louisville’s offense hums when Miller Moss is comfortable, and Clemson can’t afford to let him sit in rhythm. The Tigers hit Florida State with six sacks last week — their best pass-rush performance of the season — and they’ll need a similar mindset Friday night. Moss has thrown for over 2,100 yards, but has shown he can get rattled when the pocket collapses. With Isaac Brown, who rushed for 151 yards on 20 carries in last season’s matchup, sidelined, Louisville leans even harder on Moss’ right arm. If Clemson can speed him up, force off-platform throws, and make him uncomfortable in the red zone, the Tigers’ secondary suddenly looks a lot less stressed. Winning this game starts with winning the line of scrimmage.

2. Limit Big Plays

This Louisville offense doesn’t need long, methodical drives — they can flip the field in a snap as Jeff Brohm is one of the best playcallers in America. Receiver Chris Bell is a yards-after-contact machine with nearly 800 receiving yards, and Keyjuan Brown showed last week he can turn a crease into a chunk gain as the starter at running back. Clemson can’t afford the coverage lapses and explosive plays that doomed them earlier in the year. The Tigers were much cleaner against Florida State, tackling well in space and staying connected on the back end. They’ll need that same discipline tonight to prevent the haymakers that energize L&N Stadium and tilt momentum fast. Keep Louisville in front, force them to earn every yard, and the Tigers can control the pace.

3. Steady on Offense

The Tigers don’t need fireworks — they just need to keep doing what they’ve been doing. Cade Klubnik has quietly been one of the ACC’s most efficient quarterbacks over the last month, completing nearly 68 percent of his throws and avoiding the costly turnovers that hurt early in the season. Adam Randall’s emergence at running back has stabilized the ground game, and I like what we saw from Gideon Davidson last weekend as well. Louisville has forced 16 turnovers in nine games, so Clemson can’t gift the Cardinals short fields. If the Tigers stay balanced, take what’s available, and rely on their October-November rhythm, they can grind out drives and keep their defense fresh. Steady wins this race.

Prediction:

Clemson enters Friday night playing its best football of the season, and that matters in a matchup where momentum and confidence are huge factors. The Tigers have averaged more than 34 points per game since the start of October, and Cade Klubnik has found a rhythm that wasn’t there early in the year. If Clemson gets that same version of Klubnik — decisive, accurate, and steady — they can sustain drives, stay in manageable downs, and keep Louisville’s playmakers on the sideline.

Defensively, Clemson won’t shut Louisville down, but they don’t have to. What they can do is make the Cardinals earn it. Without Isaac Brown, Louisville becomes a little more one-dimensional, and that plays into Clemson’s hands if the pass rush shows up again. 

This should be a tight, swing-heavy game deep into the fourth quarter, but Clemson’s recent stability on offense and renewed energy on defense give the Tigers just enough to escape with a hard-fought win.

In a season where they’ve been searching for consistency, Friday night becomes another step forward.

The Pick: Clemson 27, Louisville 24

Season Record: 5-4

Swanny’s Predictions:

✅ = Correct Prediction