Clemson Baseball: Inside the Numbers as Tigers tackle Hurricanes
Clemson (25-8, 10-5) looks to rebound from a 6-3 loss to Georgia in North Augusta Tuesday when the struggling Miami Hurricanes (13-19, 7-8) visit Clemson beginning Friday.
Tale of the Tape
Clemson's struggles at the plate have been well documented, and I'll document it some more below, but Miami's numbers are below the Tigers, not only in offensive categories, but in every category below.
The Hurricanes have struggled away from home, going 2-8 in road games and have only hit 11 home runs as a team.
| Team | Batting | OBP | Slugging | ERA | WHIP | Fielding | Scoring |
| Clemson | .248 | .369 | .423 | 3.20 | 1.28 | .976 | 5.9 |
| Miami, FL | .246 | .342 | .340 | 3.78 | 1.36 | .964 | 4.1 |
Clemson has yet to find a reliable mid-week starter. There have been flashes, and a week ago Spencer Strider looked to be that man, but his outing Tuesday against Georgia puts that designation in doubt, at least for me.
It's one area where this team has not met the 2017 metrics, when Tyler Jackson was 9-1 (and the loss came in relief early in the season) as the primary mid-week starter.
Strider is young and has a huge upside, but is lacking consistency. He's an intriguing option, because the number of strikeouts reduces the stress on the defense, but if he's walking batters that has the exact opposite effect.
Pitching
Leading Off
Kier Meredith was 0 for 2 Tuesday, but still reached base twice, being hit by 2 pitches. The competition (at least on the mound) ramps up this week and it'll be interesting to see how Meredith responds.
The staff has every confidence in Meredith, but I'm guessing the Miami staff will be better than what Meredith has seen to date, but Meredith could be the key to an improved offense over the balance of the season.
This week's crazy stat
Jordan Greene has 4 home runs in the last 6 games and Greene's OPS is higher than Seth Beer's.
Small Margin of Error
I alluded to this in previous iterations of these stats, but this team has a small margin of error due to a .248 batting average. Tuesday was a great example: All 3 runs came on home runs and the Tigers had only 5 other hits in the game, going 1 for 15 with runners on base (Wharton's homer being the only hit with a man on) and 0 for 6 with runners in scoring position.
In addition, Clemson's year long struggle with left-handed pitchers continued, going 1 for 11 against the Bulldog southpaws.
Batting
Quality At Bats
This metric is calculated different ways by different teams and at times can be subjective depending on who is measuring the at-bat. The goal was to capture as much data as possible to better understand decisions made by the coaching staff.
Actual vs. Expected Record
Clemson is on target for a 40-16 record, but without an ACC Tournament title that's likely not enough for a top 8 seed.
| Actual Record | Expected Record | "Luck" | Expected Season Record |
| 25-8 | 23-10 | +2 | 40-16 |
Resume
The Tigers are now 6-6 against top 50 teams, with another shot at Georgia coming next Tuesday. Miami's not at that level, but does offer the chance for 3 more top 100 RPI wins.
| Record | RPI | SOS | RPI 1-50 | RPI 51-100 | RPI 101-150 | RPI 151-297 |
| 25-8 | 5 | 11 | 8-7 | 5-0 | 7-1 | 5-0 |
Upcoming Schedule
The Tigers need to win the Miami series, at a minimum, to keep their top 8 drive alive. It's not a do or die situation, as late season runs do happen (see 2016, for example), but the path would be much easier, and realistic, with 2 (or 3) wins this weekend.
Given the loss Tuesday, the rematch with the Bulldogs next week looms a little larger.
| Date | Opponent | Location | Current Record | Current RPI |
| 4/13-4/15 | Miami, FL | Clemson | 13-19 (7-8 in ACC) | 83 |
| 4/17 | Georgia | Athens, GA | 24-9 | 7 |
| 4/20-4/22 | Wake Forest | Winston-Salem, NC | 14-20 (7-8 in ACC) | 121 |
| 4/24 | Kennesaw State | Clemson | 18-15 | 85 |
| 4/25 | Presbyterian | Clemson | 12-23 | 269 |
*Baseball resume information via WarrenNolan.com.