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Clemson Baseball

Clemson Baseball: Inside the Numbers as Tigers tackle Hurricanes

April 12, 2018

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Clemson (25-8, 10-5) looks to rebound from a 6-3 loss to Georgia in North Augusta Tuesday when the struggling Miami Hurricanes (13-19, 7-8) visit Clemson beginning Friday.

Tale of the Tape

Clemson's struggles at the plate have been well documented, and I'll document it some more below, but Miami's numbers are below the Tigers, not only in offensive categories, but in every category below.

The Hurricanes have struggled away from home, going 2-8 in road games and have only hit 11 home runs as a team.

Team Batting OBP Slugging ERA WHIP Fielding Scoring
Clemson .248 .369 .423 3.20 1.28 .976 5.9
Miami, FL .246 .342 .340  3.78 1.36 .964 4.1

Clemson has yet to find a reliable mid-week starter.  There have been flashes, and a week ago Spencer Strider looked to be that man, but his outing Tuesday against Georgia puts that designation in doubt, at least for me.

It's one area where this team has not met the 2017 metrics, when Tyler Jackson was 9-1 (and the loss came in relief early in the season) as the primary mid-week starter.

Strider is young and has a huge upside, but is lacking consistency.  He's an intriguing option, because the number of strikeouts reduces the stress on the defense, but if he's walking batters that has the exact opposite effect.  



NOTE: This only measures batting average, not on base or slugging percentage.


Leading Off

Kier Meredith was 0 for 2 Tuesday, but still reached base twice, being hit by 2 pitches.  The competition (at least on the mound) ramps up this week and it'll be interesting to see how Meredith responds.

The staff has every confidence in Meredith, but I'm guessing the Miami staff will be better than what Meredith has seen to date, but Meredith could be the key to an improved offense over the balance of the season.

This week's crazy stat

Jordan Greene has 4 home runs in the last 6 games and Greene's OPS is higher than Seth Beer's.

Small Margin of Error

I alluded to this in previous iterations of these stats, but this team has a small margin of error due to a .248 batting average.  Tuesday was a great example: All 3 runs came on home runs and the Tigers had only 5 other hits in the game, going 1 for 15 with runners on base (Wharton's homer being the only hit with a man on) and 0 for 6 with runners in scoring position.

In addition, Clemson's year long struggle with left-handed pitchers continued, going 1 for 11 against the Bulldog southpaws. 


Quality At Bats

This metric is calculated different ways by different teams and at times can be subjective depending on who is measuring the at-bat.  The goal was to capture as much data as possible to better understand decisions made by the coaching staff.

Actual vs. Expected Record

Clemson is on target for a 40-16 record, but without an ACC Tournament title that's likely not enough for a top 8 seed.

Actual Record Expected Record "Luck" Expected Season Record
25-8 23-10 +2 40-16


The Tigers are now 6-6 against top 50 teams, with another shot at Georgia coming next Tuesday. Miami's not at that level, but does offer the chance for 3 more top 100 RPI wins. 

Record RPI SOS RPI 1-50 RPI 51-100 RPI 101-150 RPI 151-297
25-8 5 11 8-7 5-0 7-1 5-0

Upcoming Schedule

The Tigers need to win the Miami series, at a minimum, to keep their top 8 drive alive.  It's not a do or die situation, as late season runs do happen (see 2016, for example), but the path would be much easier, and realistic, with 2 (or 3) wins this weekend. 

Given the loss Tuesday, the rematch with the Bulldogs next week looms a little larger. 

Date Opponent Location Current Record Current RPI
4/13-4/15 Miami, FL Clemson 13-19 (7-8 in ACC) 83
4/17 Georgia Athens, GA 24-9 7
4/20-4/22 Wake Forest Winston-Salem, NC 14-20 (7-8 in ACC) 121
4/24 Kennesaw State Clemson 18-15 85
4/25 Presbyterian Clemson 12-23 269

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