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Clemson Baseball

Clemson Baseball: Inside the Numbers as Tigers look to right ship

April 20, 2018
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Clemson is in the midst of a 1-4 stretch, coming off a 6-1 loss to Georgia in Athens on Tuesday and searching for a spark, especially at the plate.

While my concern is not at the level of some others that follow Clemson baseball, there's a feeling that this is a bigger weekend than most trips to Winston-Salem, if for no other reason than for the team to receive some positive feedback and keep hope alive for an opportunity to host a regional.

I also get a sense that this team could put it all together and break out this weekend, but those hopes become less realistic with each passing series, so I admit to being conflicted.

It's difficult to believe that Logan Davidson, Seth Beer, and Chris Williams are going to combine to bat .259 on the season, but that's where we are currently.

Bombs are fine, but the Tigers need baserunners before those bombs.

Tale of the Tape

The Tigers are down to .242 on the season at the plate and rank 255th nationally in that category out of 297 teams.  That equates to roughly the bottom 15% of all Division I college baseball teams.

Team Batting OBP Slugging ERA WHIP Fielding Scoring
Clemson .242 .363 .412 3.43 1.30 .975 5.8
Wake Forest .260 .369 .371  4.38 1.39 .967 5.2

I mentioned Tuesday that Clemson has yet to find a reliable mid-week starter and that's a concern given there are two mid-week games on tap next week. 

Before we smirk at Presbyterian's record and RPI (see below), note that they beat South Carolina this past Tuesday in Columbia, something the Tigers were unable to do earlier in the season.

Pitching

These numbers are a little skewed because of the 3 "team unearned runs" in the Friday loss to Miami.  Team unearned runs count as unearned runs for the team stats but earned runs for the pitcher (Gobin in this case), which makes it difficult for me calculate automatically.  Officially the bullpen ERA is 2.83 because of these team unearned runs.

 

NOTE: This only measures batting average, not on base or slugging percentage.

 

Leading Off

Logan Davidson led off the game Tuesday with a home run, but I believe that Meredith (assuming healthy) needs to be in that spot.

Meredith on base will lead to pressure on the pitcher and defense which generally equals more hits, runs, and opportunities for mistakes on the opponents part.

Batting

Quality At Bats

This metric is calculated different ways by different teams and at times can be subjective depending on who is measuring the at-bat.  The goal was to capture as much data as possible to better understand decisions made by the coaching staff.

Actual vs. Expected Record

The expected record remains the same at 38-18.  

The Tigers are 8-3 in one-run games.

Actual Record Expected Record "Luck" Expected Season Record
26-11 25-12 +1 38-18

Resume 

The 19th RPI ranking is the lowest I can remember for Clemson this season, but one thing playing Georgia did was improve the Tigers strength of schedule - hey, I'm searching for positives.

The Tigers are now 9-7 against top 50 teams and 16-11 vs. the top 100.

Record RPI SOS RPI 1-50 RPI 51-100 RPI 101-150 RPI 151-297
26-11 19 25 9-7 7-4 1-0 9-0

Upcoming Schedule

The Tigers are currently two games behind N.C. State and a game ahead of Wake in the ACC Atlantic.  Win this weekend series, and Clemson would have at least a 2 (3 with a sweep) game lead over Wake with nine conference games left.  Lose the series and the best you could hope for is being tied with the Deacons and likely no shot at the top spot.

It's strange to look up in late April and see both Virginia and Florida State with losing records in the ACC. 

Date Opponent Location Current Record Current RPI
4/20-4/22 Wake Forest Winston-Salem, NC 18-20 (10-8 in ACC) 81
4/24 Kennesaw State Clemson 21-16 76
4/25 Presbyterian Clemson 13-26 265
4/27-4/29 Virginia Charlottsville 22-16 (7-11 in ACC) 99
5/5-5/7 Florida State Clemson 26-12 (8-9 in ACC) 9

*Baseball resume information via WarrenNolan.com.

 
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