Do The Math: Your National Champ is one of these six teams
It’s the most wonderful time of the year. The time of year when there are 130 undefeated FBS teams and most of them dream of an undefeated season and taking home the big trophy in January. At least they talk that way in August.
Then reality bites.
That reality is, despite the DIY National Championship for Central Florida last season, the non-Power 5 teams have no chance of being crowned as "real" champions. Zero, zip, nada, no way, ain’t gonna happen.
Imagine, let's say, Oklahoma being left out of the playoff at 11-1 because Boise State ran through the Mountain West and is 13-0. It won’t happen.
Boise State vs. Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl? Must see TV. Boise State vs. Alabama in the playoff? No thanks.
In just a few short sentences I'm going take you from 130 contestants to six legitimate playoff contenders and the first part is easy: Eliminate the non-Power 5 teams from the equation.
That one stroke takes us from 130 teams to 65 - the Power 5 conferences plus Notre Dame.
The next step is to look within those Power 5 conferences and eliminate the Dukes, Vanderbilts, and Purdues. The teams, not the families.
You get where I’m headed. Looking at the big picture college football is all about great storylines and runs, upsets and upstarts. Those are great for college football, like when Pittsburgh beats undefeated Miami or knocks off Clemson, but that doesn’t mean Pitt is a title contender.
There are nine teams from the original 130 that have a realistic chance of bringing home the title. Even some of those nine are on shaky ground and unlikely to make it through the season with a resume good enough to make the playoff.
This isn’t college baseball. Coastal Carolina isn't showing up in Tampa. This isn’t college basketball where Butler can come within a whisker of taking down Duke for a title.
So let's whittle that nine down to six likely survivors for the four College Football Playoff spots.
| Team | Why? | Why not? |
| Alabama |
It’s Alabama and Nick Saban. Reload, ready, aim, playoff here we come! Been there, done that. Repeatedly. |
Folks like to say Georgia lost a lot. Alabama lost more. Only three starters return on defense and oh yeah, Tua or Jalen?
|
| Clemson |
That defensive line, 15 returning starters, ESPN FPI gives the Tigers at least a 75% chance of winning every game. |
An early season trip to College Station will be a challenge, and by the time Tigers head to Tallahassee, the Seminoles may be ready. It will be the first matchup against an elite defense.
|
| Georgia |
Have you seen the recruiting classes Kirby Smart is putting together? |
Georgia lost a lot, especially on defense, which returns five starters from 2017.
|
|
Washington |
Get by Auburn on 9/1 & Huskies could run the table with 17 returning starters, including Jake Browning, though his TDs plummeted from 43 to 19. Running back Myles Gaskin has three straight 1,300 yard seasons.
|
FPI projects 2.1 losses, but I’m struggling to find them on a 45th ranked schedule (other than perhaps Auburn). PAC 12 has one CFB win (Oregon 2014). |
|
Oklahoma |
Lincoln Riley is a young master, and when a rebuilding Texas is your toughest opponent, you’re in the mix. |
Color me skeptical about a quarterback that last took a meaningful snap in 2015 and has one eye on staying healthy for MLB. |
| Ohio State |
Urban Meyer can coach and recruit, but at press time the question is will he even be employed? |
The Meyer distraction could unite the team or tear it apart. Only 12 returning starters and a new quarterback. Trips to Michigan State and Penn State loom.
|
| Notre Dame | Nine returning starters on defense and the 27th ranked offense in 2017, but the biggest + for me is the schedule is not the typical killer for the Irish. FPI favors the Irish in every game. |
Open vs. Michigan and close at Southern Cal. An argument could be made that a one-loss Notre Dame has an advantage over a team in a conference. My guess is it depends which conference the other team is in. |
| Wisconsin | The Badgers return nine offensive starters including quarterback Alex Hornibrook. A popular pick by many, but I believe they'll lose in the Big 10 Championship. |
They have lots to replace on defense, plus Hornibrook must cut down INTs (15). Michigan (home) and at Penn State. Also, history at Iowa doesn’t bode well despite being favored.
|
| Miami |
The Hurricanes have 14 returning starters including quarterback, Malik Rosier. Mark Richt is building, but they might be a year away. |
FPI favors the Canes in every game, but here’s guessing they used up a ton of luck in 2017 and things may turn this season. They didn’t look ready for prime time in their loss to Clemson in ACC Championship last December.
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Why not us? Thinning the herd
I'm betting (figuratively) Miami can't do it two years in a row AND then beat (likely) Clemson in the
ACC Championship Game, though the Canes are moving in the right direction.
We talk about Wisconsin every year, but I’m not sure they can hang with the powers that be and the Big 10's recent playoff history is that of being shut out and embarrassed.
Notre Dame is tempting and a trendy pick and the schedule looks favorable. They hung with Georgia last year, but got pounded by Miami and imploded in the 4th quarter at Stanford.
The 6 with a shot and figuring the odds
| Team | Current Odds |
Implied Probability |
| Alabama | +190 | 34.48% |
| Clemson | +300 | 25.00% |
| Georgia | +900 | 10.00% |
| Ohio State | +1000 | 9.09% |
| Washington | +1200 | 7.69% |
| Oklahoma | +1600 | 5.88% |
If Urban survives, Ohio State likely rolls into the playoff with Alabama, Clemson and Georgia. If he doesn't, Washington sneaks in to complete my projected four.
ESPN's new Playoff Predictor picks the Irish over the Huskies (barely), with Clemson, Alabama and Georgia having the best odds.
So, who you got?