Keys to Victory: No. 9 Clemson at Duke

Clemson Sports Talk

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Each week, we review the game’s history, three keys to success, and Swanny’s prediction.

The Match-Up:

No. 9 Clemson (0-0, 0-0 ACC) at Duke (0-0)

Clemson enters the game as the reigning ACC champions after winning its league-leading 21st all-time ACC title last season. The Tigers are 15-4-1 all-time in conference openers of seasons following ACC titles, a mark that includes wins in conference openers following each of Clemson's six ACC titles from 2015-20.

A year ago, Clemson opened its 2022 ACC title-winning campaign on Labor Day night, defeating Georgia Tech, 41-10, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Clemson's final offensive play of the contest was a three-yard touchdown pass by Cade Klubnik, his first career touchdown pass in his first career game. On Monday, Klubnik is expected to make his first regular-season start, as last December, he became the first Clemson quarterback since the modernization of Clemson's quarterback position in 1953 to make his first career start in a postseason game.

The Last Time Clemson Played at Duke (2012)

Series History:

• OVERALL: Clemson leads series, 37-16-1
• HOME: Clemson leads series, 20-4-1
• ROAD: Clemson leads series, 15-12
• NEUTRAL: Clemson leads series, 2-0
• LAST MEETING: Nov. 17, 2018 (35-6, W)
• STREAK: Clemson, Won 5

Roster:

Stat of the Week:

Clemson and Duke are playing a third consecutive night game in the series (2012, 2018 and 2023) after not playing any night games against one another in the series’ first 52 contests.

Chasing History:

Clemson Head Coach Dabo Swinney enters the game with a 99-19 record in ACC regular season play. With a win on Monday, he would become only the second coach ever to lead a program to 100 career regular season conference victories as head of an ACC program, joining Bobby Bowden, whose more than 300 career wins at Florida State included 117 conference wins following the Seminoles' addition to the conference in 1992.

Key 1: Riley’s Raid  

Air Raid or Dirt Raid, either way, I’m excited to see Riley’s Raid arrive for Clemson. After incredible offensive exploits en route to multiple national titles and six college football playoff appearances, something got stale for the Tiger offense. I’m unsure what caused it or when it changed, but you could feel it. 

A lot of fans want to point their finger at D.J. Uiagalelei, and you might be right, but there is no doubt that the 2021 season under OC Tony Elliott and the 2022 season under OC Brandon Streeter left a lot to be desired in terms of consistency and tempo. The explosive plays vanished, three-and-outs became more frequent, and last season, bailing on the rushing attack offered by Will Shipley and Phil Mafah felt like a failed opportunity. 

To his credit, Swinney noticed and made a change few would have believed he was cutthroat enough to make, bringing in Garrett Riley from TCU and severing ties with Streeter after just one season. 

Now, the eyes of Tiger Nation and college football descend on Clemson’s offense with a new look and an exciting and energetic quarterback in Cade Klubnik. If Riley’s Raid hits on all cylinders, expect even more excitement about the 2023 season from Clemson fans and national pundits alike.

Key 2: Contain Leonard

Duke’s Riley Leonard is a fantastic quarterback. Watching him a year ago, you could see he’s a composed and talented young quarterback. Now, entering his junior season, the ACC is on notice after the Blue Devils went 9-4 last season and could have easily been 11-2. 

The 6’4, 212-pounder can spin the football, but his legs make him a much bigger issue when plays break down. Leonard was 250-391 for 2,976 yards last season with 20 TDs and six interceptions, but on the ground, he added 699 yards and 15 touchdowns on just 124 carries. 

Tonight, I expect Clemson to try and limit his ability to rush the football and my guess is that Wade Woodaz or Barrett Trotter will draw the assignment to spy Leonard if he makes some plays with his legs early in the game. If the defensive line can contain Riley, that would be ideal, but if they struggle to keep him in the pocket, I think Wes Goodwin will make the call to contain him with a linebacker.

Key 3: Play Clean

We’ve all been around this game long enough to know that Week 1 can deliver some strange moments as players are playing at full speed for the first time in nine months. Avoiding mistakes that put your back against the wall is always important in the opener. Not to mention, with the new clock rules, fewer possessions means that each possession is more valuable. 

If the Tigers play a fairly clean game, I like their chances to walk out of Wallace Wade with a win. If they are sloppy in the opener, it could go well into the 4th quarter until we know who will win.

Prediction:

This game will probably be more challenging than most people expect. It’s not to say that Clemson isn’t the more talented team, but until you see this offense in a few series, it’s all speculation. Given Garrett Riley’s track record, I’d guess things will go well for the Tigers.

I can’t lie; I watched TCU and Colorado and wondered how many Horned Frog fans wish they still had Riley-- even though they scored 42 points-- maybe with him, they score 56 and win? If the Tigers get the explosive plays we saw from TCU last season-- look out-- something special might be brewing.

I don’t think it will be perfect, but I believe Clemson has more than enough to win by more than two touchdowns.

Clemson 38, Duke 17

Swanny’s Predictions: 

✅ = Correct Prediction